John Davidson's Economic Comments
Perspective: Thanksgiving has always been the most important holiday in our household. My wife works hard at the preparation and insists that each of our 5 children make the effort to ensure that they are here for the event. This year we also had two grandparents, one niece, two spouses and two of the three significant others in attendance. One of the significant others initiated a new tradition, touch football. This was new to our immediate household of 4 daughters and a soccer-playing son. The six-on-six was pretty competitive, but most of the sounds heard around the field were laughs; most of the sounds the next day were groans from soreness. Several of the touch-downs and many of the catches were made by non-US participants who had never played the game before. I wish that I could share this experience with those in Washington trying to deal with the fiscal cliff. The cliff is real and has the potential to trigger a recession in the US and around the globe. Like the realization that the point of the touch football game is for all of us to have a good time and get some exercise, the most important result out of the Washington arena is the demonstration that the two sides are able to work on solutions for the good of the Country. The solutions to our fiscal problems will include some pain, but, hopefully, that pain will be shared fairly and not be as severe as the pain of the inability to come to an agreement. While most of the markets have discounted Europe and acknowledged the slowdown in China, the global economy will need some surprises from these non-US participants as well. |
Other Economic Releases
On the softer side in the US, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index slipped a couple of points to 82.7 in November. influenced by Hurricane Sandy, Initial Jobless Claims fell -41,000 to 410,000 in the week of November 17th.
Germany's 3rd quarter GDP rose +0.2% as expected. Germany's Ifo Surveys of Economic Sentiment, Current Conditions, and Business Expectations all rose in November. France's INSEE survey of Business Climate increased 3 points to 88. The UK's CBI Industrial Trends Survey rose to -21 in November.
China's PMI Manufacturing Index rose a point, crossing into the expansion zone at 50.4. |
Firmer economic data and optimistic statements concerning the intention of both sides to avoid the fiscal cliff in the US gave a boost to stocks this week.

Bond Markets:
Rising interest rates across the globe were reaction to the firmer economic data. The narrowing of the credit spreads were not enough to offset the rising rates for investment grade bonds. Only High Yield bonds posted positive returns for the week.
Currencies & Commodities:
The US Dollar declined against the other four currencies on the week. Both metals and energy prices rose on firming of the economic data.
Data Source: Bloomberg Applications for I-Phone and I-Pad
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