Mon, 09/12/2016 - 3:15pm

AUGUSTA — Here’s what we already know (or sense): Maine’s population is getting even more gray, fewer babies have been born in the state, and the median age in the state is 44.5 — making it the oldest state by median age, of at least seven years above the U.S. average.

We also know that employment has long been shifting from businesses that produce goods to those that provide services. Three-quarters of jobs are in now healthcare, government, retail, professional services, hospitality, or manufacturing.

And it doesn’t look like dramatic change is heading to the state anytime soon, according to the Maine Workforce Outlook, 2014 to 2024, a report from the Maine Department of Labor’s Center for Workforce Research issued Sept. 12.

The report projects that the state’s economic outlook remains fairly unchanged, as does its prospects for population growth.

“The advancing age structure of the population is a primary factor driving job gains in healthcare and losses in government, mostly in public education,” the report said. “The longterm downward trend in manufacturing jobs is expected to persist.”

The number of jobs is expected to grow in professional and management occupations, which generally require postsecondary education and offer higher than average earnings, and in service occupations, which

generally have limited education and skill requirements and offer lower than average pay.

“Job losses are primarily expected in production and administrative support occupations, which have long been the path to middle class earnings for people without a college degree,” said the Maine research.

Natural population change — the difference between births and deaths — has been slightly negative since 2011, a pattern that is expected to continue over the next decade.

Baby boomers reaching working age drove rapid growth from the mid-1960s through 1980s. Their exit from the workforce over the next two decades is a serious constraint to workforce, GDP, personal income, and other measures of economic growth.

The reduction in unemployment that is expected to cause employment to rise (despite a modest decline in the labor force) between 2014 and 2024 had already occurred by the middle of 2016.

The Center for Workforce Research and Information’s 10-year forecast for the workforce for the period through 2024 examines total workforce change based on population and labor force participation expectations and examines job growth or decline among more than 80 industries and nearly 650 occupations.

The outlook is designed to provide information for three core purposes: to help employers address and plan for future workforce needs, to aid individuals in making informed career choices and to guide educational institutions in developing curriculum that aligns with the needs of both students and employers.

Commissioner of Labor Jeanne Paquette commented in the report in a press release: "This workforce outlook underscores the importance of connecting people who are out of work or underemployed, including people on welfare and people with disabilities, with the job skills necessary for in-demand occupations. We also need to seek new opportunities to attract workers and their families to Maine through efforts like the Hire-A-Vet campaign, Live+Work in Maine, and other collaborations. Furthermore, we must use apprenticeship and other training programs to increase the skills of our workers to attract new businesses, workers and opportunities for economic growth."

Detail on the outlook for workforce change in total and by age group is at www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/outlookDemographic.html. Detail on the outlook for job change for industries and occupations is at www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/outlook.html.